A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
