Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
